Lessons from 4/3rds |
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PhotoTraveler
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Topic: Lessons from 4/3rdsPosted: 21 September 2010 at 04:38 |
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So, anyone who has stopped in on a Olympus 4/3rds forum to see what their thinking these days know that they are pretty much the least happy group of people around these days.
The reality is nothing new or surprising has happened, just what everyone knew to be the case since m4/3rds came about has panned out. For those not following, Oly launched the E-5 recently which was as about as low key and boring of an update as you can make to a camera. And coming 3 years after the last, and being the top camera it was really week. Needless to say, it didn't go over well. It's a camera only a heavily 4/3rds invested user will care about, and even then they might not be interested because it's week update and they are un-happy. Next Oly has now confirmed 4/3rds lens development has stopped. (like getting the press release for something the world knew long ago). They imply their might still be another 4/3rds body someday (as in the E-5 may not be the last), but I don't think anyone is holding their breath. So basically, the newest System Mount before the recent dawn of EVILs. And the last SLR mount developed (unless you count the small medium format leica S2 mount). And the mount that was to be so great because it was "born digital" yadda yadda is dead. Is anyone shocked...no. 4/3rds never gained traction. Other brands were able to come in and take over 3rd place with ease over Oly. It was a total failure. For a small sensor system it was too dang big. It had the wrong aspect ratio, trapped in a world where they where thinking 1990s with 4/3rds monitors, and 4/3rds P&S. It was obsolete format wise from the start. It never really offered anything compelling, and no matter how loyal a fan base it had, it never went anyplace. To me, it was always a bridge. Between old SLRs, and the future, but was not the future itself. The future was what it bridged to, (m4/3rds) which is what regular 4/3rds should have been to start. I don't think it being a bridge is much different than the new Sony SLTs. Those too are bridge cameras between the old SLR mounts and the new EVIL mounts. A short life design that transitions over. 4/3rds was killed off by it's own little sibling, the one with less lenses, in general lower quality lenses (than big sibling), less features, and in general an all around inferior "on paper" system with the exception of size and weight (which folks would debate). So with that, it comes to a question to A mount users. 4/3rds is dead, panny killed their 4/3rds efforts almost as soon as they started. Samsung has ended any K mount work (and apparently split from pentax). Sony has NEX mount.... When m4/3rds came out, most of us realized 4/3rds was done, even if users denied it. They pointed to the new cameras and lenses coming out at the time. But anyone who understand development knows stuff is long in the pipeline and that takes time to clear out. The end of SLR mounts is inevitable. All products work towards an integration/simplification/refinement. DSLRs passed the peak of getting the capability and functions of their earlier film bodies at the same cost, so now the time was on towards simpler, and that has been happening with all makes. Sony has NEX out before Canon and Nikon and a smaller install base, so baring some unlikely happening, A mount will go extinct before EOS and F. How prepared are current A mount users for this? How many of you look at 4/3rds and understand the realities. That E mount is a replacement for A mount on the long view (just as 4/3rds, the statements from the company mean nothing as they say what is needed to be said at the time). That companies don't want to carry multiple mounts. While there are new cameras coming for A mount and lenses. The picture is no different than Oly. The 2 mounts will not live on in parallel indefinitely. Will you accept and move on? Will you hold anger at Sony? If so, why? Do you think it's reasonable for a company to keep working something from the past indefinitely, especially when it was a system that it's previous owner had no interest in and by all measures was saved by Sony? Would you go to a different brand? If so is it because of A mount ending? What if that brand did the same thing and killed the mount (jump to EOS or F mount just to have it killed off a few years later), would you jump back or have the same anger at that company. I bring this up because I think there are lessons here and things to think about. A mount has nearly died a few times. But did hang in. It's previous owner didn't care about it all, and many would claim tried to kill it (design a wonderful body and have Poland the only country in the world with advertisements for it), for example). They got no real market share. Sony certainly got market share and brought plenty to it, but in the end, on average probably has only made a small growth. And of course no matter what Sony does, most users tend to be angry with them (somethings rightfully, often not). Does the story of 4/3rds make A mount users think twice about where they are going? We had a massive exodus when Sony came to the table, but new faces came in. Will a repeat be on the horizon? Or are you pro-active and planning for such a thing? |
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Mitchins
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Joined: 01 February 2010 Location: Australia Status: Offline Posts: 427 |
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 04:44 |
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I think it's a little bit different with Sony.
The professional market will for at least a decade be likely to use full-frame 35mm lenses. Aside from the considerable investment people already have in it, the quality of larger glass is clear. I would be pissed off if I had to use CDAF instead of PDAF in a mirrorless system right now. It's a bit hard to take a professional 4/3 camera seriously like the E-5. I can foresee APS-C on Alpha dying and E-mount taking over. Well these are just my thoughts. Edited by Mitchins - 21 September 2010 at 04:50 |
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Sony Alpha 850; Sony 16-35mm F2.8 CZ; Sony 50mm f1.4; Sony 135mm ZA, Sony 70-400mm G SSM, Minolta 24-105mm; Sigma Ef-500 DG Super; Sony HVL-F20AM
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luckyduckie
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 04:53 |
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Sounds so grim ... the end is near ... ???
where's the ark? |
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Mitchins
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 04:56 |
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It's highly unlikely 35mm will die in the near future.
It may become less 'regular user' market, but Canon and Nikon will keep making their D3x and 5D's. Sony will still make their A9xx I think. Just look at medium format, pentex and mamiya still market it. |
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Sony Alpha 850; Sony 16-35mm F2.8 CZ; Sony 50mm f1.4; Sony 135mm ZA, Sony 70-400mm G SSM, Minolta 24-105mm; Sigma Ef-500 DG Super; Sony HVL-F20AM
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jcbenten
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Joined: 09 May 2008 Country: United States Location: Longhorn Land Status: Offline Posts: 408 |
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 04:58 |
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Nice writeup. I never really understood the 4/3rd concept. IMO the goal was to get to FF on the cheap, not chop the sensor in half!! That said I would have bought the E3 instead of the A350 if the price had been better. But that was so many moons ago.
EVIL/NEX is the future. At some point the EVF will be better than the OVF and mirrors and prisms will be in museums. NEX style cameras will be so inexpensive (and FF) that lens changing will become a thing of the past. The cameras will be permanently mounted to the lens. Sports shooters will have tripod trees with multiple lens/cameras systems pointing all over the place. Will I be mad at Sony? Nope. Tradition is overrated and I like new gadgets. I am looking forward to a FF NEX, Version 3. Maybe by then my A550 will wear out. |
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Chris
Sony A550; Min 24 & 28f2.8; Sony 35f1.4G 50f1.4 85f1.4 18-250; Tam 17-50f2.8; Tok 28-70f2.8SV; Sony HVL58; FS: Sony 75-300 |
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Mitchins
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 05:02 |
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I would love a FF SLT. I don't mind the size of A850.
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Sony Alpha 850; Sony 16-35mm F2.8 CZ; Sony 50mm f1.4; Sony 135mm ZA, Sony 70-400mm G SSM, Minolta 24-105mm; Sigma Ef-500 DG Super; Sony HVL-F20AM
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groovyone
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Joined: 27 November 2006 Country: United States Location: Houston, TX Status: Offline Posts: 3695 |
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 05:04 |
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I thin kPT just wants some firesale priced A-mount lenses. heheh
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A900|A100IR|NEX5|NEX7|Maxxum 7|Polaroid
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Mitchins
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 05:05 |
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I think it's just speculation. (yes I see the irony in speculating on that).
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Sony Alpha 850; Sony 16-35mm F2.8 CZ; Sony 50mm f1.4; Sony 135mm ZA, Sony 70-400mm G SSM, Minolta 24-105mm; Sigma Ef-500 DG Super; Sony HVL-F20AM
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PhotoTraveler
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 05:33 |
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No, if anything I want lens prices to stay high.
Note, I don't think A mount is going away tomorrow or even a few days after tomorrow. But it will go away, that I'm sure, and it will go away sooner than F or EOS. But a lot of it is to bring up the very issue of denialism. How many folks can accept that A mount has a finite life. (And for the record, E mount and all EVIL mounts will some day go away too, just not as soon). |
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luckyduckie
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 06:01 |
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Ok, I just finish reading DK's report from Photokina
Quote: Samsung said that this year’s 1.4 million mirrorless camera sales would rise to over 15 million and eclipse DSLR sales by 2015. Maybe they are right. They also say they will be the leader. Who knows? - David Kilpatrick so we'll all be using Samsung by 2015??? |
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Alex H
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Knowledgebase Contributor Joined: 06 November 2008 Country: Ukraine Location: Sweden Status: Offline Posts: 689 |
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 06:49 |
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I do not see myself as a brand-loyal person. Even though I am not a pro, and do not make any money from my photography, I use the tool that fits better the purpose. I have Sony and Nikon DSLRs and Nikon and Canon P&S cameras. Each one was selected based on the following principle: do what I want it to do good enough and stay within the budget. That is why I only have four A-mount lenses in my stable.
So, getting back to Your question - no, I will not be angry. Why? By the time A-mount disappears many things will change. I would better worry about having a job and being able to pay for a new camera in 2015, and not about which mount this camera will be or who will be making it. Alex |
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pegelli
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Dyxum Administrator Joined: 02 June 2007 Country: Belgium Location: Schilde Status: Offline Posts: 13119 |
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 07:14 |
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Any mount will go away over time, also A, F, EOS. Just look at history, many more mounts in the graveyard than currently in production
Don't think it will go very fast and I feel I still have many years of happy A-mount use ahead of me, but when the day comes I will not hold a grudge against technology moving on. |
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ADub128
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 07:24 |
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I'm with Pegelli - technology marches on, sometimes with backwards compatibility, sometimes not. I expect minor grudges along the way (I spent $x and now it's obsolete?!), but I can deal with them because the new stuff is usually so much cooler and I usually *think* I have extracted the value of my purchases.
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Current Faves: NEX-3 | A55 | A700 | Tam 28-75, 70-200 | Min 50 1.7, 85 1.4 | Sony 16(E-mount), 28 | Rokkor-X 50 1.4
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nifca
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Posted: 21 September 2010 at 07:25 |
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According to a business magazine i read recently Olympus are well on track to having 20 % of the DSLR market .
Most people that buy thier dslr dont know about sensor sizes , they just know that the oly camera is claimed to be as good as good as the others , just like lots of people buying smaller sony dslr cameras . Oly will be around for a while yet , just wont be much of a showing in the semi pro class imo . Regards |
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