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the future of dSLR

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dCap View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dCap Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: the future of dSLR
    Posted: 29 December 2021 at 20:35
Now that Canon have 'sort of' stated publicly that they've made their last high end dSLR. And, I think Nikon mentioned this a while back too? And as we know Sony stopped looking at the dSLR + lenses to fit many years ago. Mirrorless is the future for most 'cameras with knobs and dials'.

Pentax seem to be placing their bets on cornering the dSLR market's future. And they've said they intend to continue. But their latest camera was quite pricey ... hopefully they're not aiming to be the Leica of dSLR.

YES YES YES - used cameras will continue for many years and provide many years of clicking pleasure.

But for those that really prefer the dSLR shape and form factor ... are you considering moving to Pentax? There is IBIS. And WR in most bodies and some lenses. They have some unconventional focal lengths. But I think some of the lenses whir like a drone, right? There has been a clear partnership with Tamron for some optical formula. And some respected optics.

Do you see the used dSLR market being a fire-sale (cheap as possible to just get rid) or do you think 'some' value will be retained?

As a former (everything and) Nikon shooter I used Nikon A-IS manual focus lenses on my last Nikon dSLR (D700). Nothing Nikon has made in mirrorless is remotely compelling to me - and if anything I'd think Nikon could 'do a Pentax' and retain a couple of bodies for the very long F mount history. Native, no Frankenstein adaptor stuff required.

I have considered buying a Nikon D700 or D3 to have as a studio rig or to have with some A-IS manual focus lenses (20/28/50, maybe a micro too). At the moment, I have no serious 'need' for a D700 but they are pretty cheap and capable certainly in the studio.

How is the used Sony A market? Full of tempremental/broken junk? Or high priced hold outs?
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Miranda F View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Miranda F Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 December 2021 at 21:53
A-mount stuff is gradually becoming (or has already become) a collectors market, which means the rare stuff goes stratospheric and the common stuff you can't give away. This is a great benefit for those who like buying s/h stuff they lusted after when it was new, and it's okay for those who did buy the stuff then and still like to use it.
There's also a bit of retro going on, and that cuts both ways. If you're going back to A-mount do you go back to APS-C as well? And if you're going back to film, then isn't it better to pick a camera with no electronics at all?
I remember holding an EOS 1000 when it came out and couldn't believe how light it was. I wouldn't buy or use one now if they were giving them away free...
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Phil Wood Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 December 2021 at 23:28
Sony dropped DSLRs years ago. SLT kept the mount alive for a while, but that has now gone too.

Lower spec A=mount lenses are available for peanuts, top spec lenses are still holding high prices. As an A-mount user I sort of hope that the prices fall at the top end. However, looking at prices for earlier mounts it may not happen for some time yet.

I certainly don't see myself moving to Pentax, what would be the point? If I was going big on film I might switch to a less electronic MF system (I really liked the Canon A1 I used for years and could see myself going back to it).

However, I see my future in the LA-EA5, which turns the latest E-mounts into the most capable A-mount bodies ever made. I will, of course, get some E-mount lenses, but I can't see myself replacing all my A-mount glass while it can still be used via an adapter.

The value of the best lenses will, I think, hold up fairly well as long as they can be used effectively on modern bodies - they still offer value compared to current lenses.

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Post Options Post Options   Quote LAbernethy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 December 2021 at 01:26
The future is bodiless, beyond mirrorless. That said mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras have displaced the traditional DSLR for us old dogs uninterested in new tricks like the Panasonic Lumix DC-BS1H or unable to work off a viewscreen/phone.
Will Pentax be around in five years?
I started a move back to Olympus just before their future became uncertain. That has me looking at Panasonic. Time will tell.
When Sony discontinued A-Mount, I stocked up with "New Old Stock" or low shutter count enthusiast/pro built models at fire sale prices. If the specs can be believed I should be fine for the next thirty years.   
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Post Options Post Options   Quote ABDurbs Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 December 2021 at 08:37
We can't even buy the LA-EA5 in South Africa, so if I want to switch to a mirrorless body, I have to look at the older adaptors which cost a fortune here, or import one with all the courier fees, taxes and duties that go with that. Or sell the house to buy new lenses

Personally, I can't see the point of me moving to Pentax when every other manufacturer is going mirrorless. I see the attraction of DSLR, but it just feels like a step backwards, and quite honestly, I like the idea of the smaller form factor of mirrorless.

Until then, I will carry on using my "outdated" A mount gear and look for those bargain Zeiss lenses.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote addy landzaat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 December 2021 at 10:40
Leica is still selling M-mount rangefinder cameras, 65 years after the Pentax Asahiflex and over 60 years after Canon, Nikon and Minolta introduced their SLR's. There is space for a niche product - back then the rangefinder, now the SLR.

BTW, the Pentax K3iii (yes, it really is called the K3 mark 3) is expensive, but it is just as expensive as the comparable Fuji X-T4. If you want something cheaper, they also make the K-70 that is cheaper then the Sony A6100 (that is out of stock).

I think the rise of mirrorless is good for Pentax, basically being the only DSLR maker. For those people who prefer DSLR and/or OVF it is the only option in town. (Though I think I agree there is room for a basic full-frame Nikon F-mount camera, maybe Nikon will do a digital F6).

This made me chuckle:
"If I was going big on film I might switch to a less electronic MF system (I really liked the Canon A1 I used for years and could see myself going back to it)." as the A-1 back in the day was considered an electronic marvel, like Wikipedia says: "It was the first SLR to offer an electronically controlled programmed autoexposure mode."
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Post Options Post Options   Quote waldo_posth Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 December 2021 at 13:17
Looking at the prices for A99M2 bodies on fleabay I am stunned: For a well preserved exemplar with a low shutter count you now have to pay almost the price which you paid for it new, 4-5 years ago. Whether the prices are driven up by collectors or by stolid A-mount users is not clear to me.

I sold my A99M2 and now have the A7RM4 and the LA-EA5 (I thought about switching to Pentax for about a minute or so): great combo for the A-mount glass which I retained. I have seen prices going down for G lenses as well, like the 200mm F/2.8 APO HS and the 80-200mm F/2.8, for example. They might not be as rare as, say, the 17-35mm F/3.5 G lens - which is still hard to get.

Top-rated A-mount film bodies may be an interesting collector's item in the immediate future. Talking to other photographers and seeing the demand for film at the lab I am using one can easily foresee a shortage of film bodies. The Nikon F6 has been discontinued last year - it's been the last film SLR (for 135 film) that you could buy new (you can still buy a Leica MP).

The shortage is even more pronounced for medium format cameras - since there is quite a number of professionals still shooting film in medium format (digital medium format is still very pricey). The lack of new medium format film cameras has already produced insane prices for Hasselblad, Pentax, Mamiya and other brands.

It's completely different for large format where you have established and new brands (Intrepid, Chamonix) with excellent offerings of new bodies.

Will Pentax become the Leica for dSLRs? Both, Leica and Pentax, share an outstanding feature: OVF. Beyond that the systems are quite different. There is a rationale, though, not to switch to mirrorless for a brand like Pentax. With mirrorless you are opening up the system for other lenses/lensmakers (at least via adapters). This is very much limited if you stick to a dSLR system. You can adapt all kinds of lenses to a Leica RF (there is even a Novoflex adapter for A-mount lenses!), but you cannot adapt all kinds of lenses to a Pentax dSLR - your lens business profits.

Does it now make sense to buy dSLRs of other makers? Like the Nikon D700? My question would be: If such a body is on the verge of becoming a collector's item will there be repair shops and spare parts for it, say, in ten years? Can broken bodies be used for spare parts in a similar way this already works for film SLRs? I doubt it.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dCap Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 December 2021 at 14:51
For older (used) dSLR a lot will depend on how reliable they are - have been - what their use has been - and how long they can actually last. While I realize that is a lot of mythical guesswork there ... two types of people would have bought a Nikon D3 new: professionals and people with a lot of money.

KM7D had a fault that developed over time. As other cameras age they may or may not exhibit other flaws. Flaw is a little tough perhaps since this was an early era dSLR and they won't have been designed/manufactured to last 20-30-40 years.

One glance at a used Nikon D3, Nikon D700, or even Nikon D2X (the last really big APS body) can tell you if it has been used by a pro. Pros have and use tools. Hobby people will protect the looks of their gear (and might miss the shot).

One of my Nikon D2H (4mp) bodies had 76k frames on it before I bought it - and it was quite clear that it had been a press camera. It was also bought from a used shop in London that bought/sold to the press, so it wasn't difficult to guess it's provenance. One of my other D2H had clearly hardly been used and looked mint (from the same store). I put about 35k frames on my D700 (as an amateur) in a year and it looked MINT the day I sold it. I see D2X for sale today and they look to be in better physical condition than the D2H I had 13 years ago.

Battery life would be my only real - minor - concern getting a used D2X (high res) today. If there are low frame rate bodies around then the battery won't have cycled much so it should have some life. There might even be new batteries from third-party manufacturers? Or Nikon might have retained that battery in the later models. Don't know without looking.

Am using the D2X as an example because a used D2X with a decent used Nikon AI-S micro is less than a decent new mirrorless macro lens (APS or FF). And the lens would also work well on a D700 which is about the same price as a D2X. As a studio light, studio only, low ISO macro bit of kit it 'kinda' makes more sense than just adding a mirrorless macro. The micro would retain it's value.
But I'd not want to carry a big camera again in the field though.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dCap Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 December 2021 at 14:59
I was a bit shocked at Pentax' price for the K3iii - especially as it is APS and cheaper than their FF K1ii.

Yes you can put big lenses on smaller sensor models if you are a fan of Frankenstein movies.

Would be nice to know if they intend to keep APS and FF dSLR or just 'focus' on a high end APS market. The K70 and KP are still available as entry points. But their lens roadmap looks a bit like spaghettis junction with a real bolognaise of mixed ingredients (DA, FA, WR, not, Limited (but not really though), same lens with green or red ring (different coating). Eating said spaghetti without cutlery would beat less messy.

I am someone who respects APS - as long as there are enough interesting lenses made for that image circle in native mount. Frankenstein fan I am not. I like the idea of FF but have only owned one decent FF body.
I can still remember how that music used to make me smile
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Post Options Post Options   Quote pegelli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 December 2021 at 14:59
I used my A700 extensively last year for the the "vintage digital macro" part of my Photo 150 challenge. My KM5D developed the dreaded FFB issue and is now a paperweight

But the A700 is still a joy to use and seems very sturdy (so far). Only a few frames show some pink stripes in one corner but after changing the memory card it hasn't happened anymore, so I think that's more likely a card issue and not a camera issue.

I wouldn't want to be without my A7's, but I'm still very happy with the A700, happier than I ever was with my A850, which was sold a few years ago. I've never owned a SLT, only a quasi SLT when I use my LA-EA4 on an E-mount camera.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dCap Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 December 2021 at 15:22
Yeah, if I'd still been A mount when the SLTs came out I would have exited then (or when they made the 2nd body). So I moved earlier than I needed to, I can remember being un-impressed with the A100 handling but loving the files. But to be fair it was a KM5D II with a Sony logo on it and my heart was with the higher end KM7D. Canon did the pelicle mirror thing a few years ago on film - and it flopped - losing a third of your light and shooting through a dusty mirror must have been a pretty hard sell on digital.

Good that Sony were able to recover though and make the A7 line - which is pretty decent - still the market leader - and has oooooodles of nice glass. Am I right in thinking all Sony FE lenses are WR? I think so - smart. Fujifilm are kinda catching up with their earlier lenses not being WR (but some were). And are now replacing (or adding to) the line-up. They've kept the old 35/1.4 as it was a good optical design, so the new 33/1.4 WR 'replacement' is NOT a replacement but is an addition (and new formula).
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Post Options Post Options   Quote addy landzaat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 December 2021 at 17:09
Some people overreacted on the SLT's 1/3rd stop light loss. Canon sensors were more then 1/3rd stop behind Sony sensors.
There were obvious advantages to the SLT before they introduced OSPDAF.

The Canon's pelicle cameras did not flop. They made a pelicle version of almost all their professional SLR's:

Pellix (1965)
Pellix QL (1966)
F1 High Speed Motor (1972)
New F1 High Speed Motor (1984)
EOS RT (1989)
EOS 1n RS (1995)
The Pellix's might have been a bit strange, but in the F1 and later it made a real difference. Those were specialised high speed cameras.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote XKAES Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 December 2021 at 17:38
Unlike earlier camera types, there were not that many DSLR cameras manufactured. Relative to that, Minolta (and others) made auto-focusing SLR film cameras for 25 years -- and before that manual-focusing SLR film cameras for 30 years. That's basically an endless supply and cameras and lenses -- easy to find, and at unbeatable prices if you are not in a hurry.

The demand for certain early lenses and cameras is much higher than their supply, and so they sell for a lot -- and always will.

This will probably be the case for DSLR cameras -- especially certain models -- because they were not made for a long time.

The good news is that the a-mount lenses have been made for so long that there are -- and will be -- an endless supply, often for pennies on the dollar. That makes a camera decision pretty easy for me.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote dCap Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 December 2021 at 18:13
Some of those Canons were indeed quite specialist - especially for sports at speeds that today seem slow - and they would have sold dozens of them. All as alternative versions at a considerable premium (economics of it being a specialist version primarily for high-speed). Thankfully they were not really aimed at the mainstream or to replace an SLR.

The EOS-RT was a complete flop. I shot Canon FD and then EOS from 1987-2004 so kinda saw them happen. Didn't know they'd make a pelix of the F1 though. F1 was the camera I wanted when the T-90 ended Canon's MF and EOS started. The RT was a version of the EOS-600-ish series which was my first AF camera (630, I think?).

Just like Nikon's 250 (?) frame 35mm roll-film magazine that was designed for a couple of their F bodies. Specialist kit - not mainstream. They probably sold dozens of them too - including to the makers of Raiders of the Lost Arc. The famous underground mine/roller-coaster sequence which was "filmed" on a 'train set' scale miniature for one part of the chase. The actors being tiny clay puppets. Probably a YouTube all about it. I only know this as one of the people on production mentions it from time to time on a podcast. The 'movie camera' was on a mini dolly (train set) which ran along side and also inside the set. Almost certain it was a Nikon F-something (with their bulk film magazine). Might have been Canon? Am sure Canon made bulk loaders too. But I think it was Nikon. Not really the kinda gear normal people would use on the daily though.
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